sen. Byrd shows how to stop healthcare bill.

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AMERICA HAS BEEN TAKEN OVER WITHOUT A SHOT FIRED

• WE HAVE LOST OUR COUNTRY TO A SOCIALIST  DEMOCRATIC PARTY!!!
• WE ARE BEING CONTROLLED BY A ONE PARTY SYSTEM.
• ENFORCED BY A CORRUPT GOVERNMENT.
• A DEMOCRATIC CONTROLLED MEDIA.
• CONVICTED FELONS
• TAX CHEATS.
• SUPREME COURT.
• ACORN
• ACLU.
• NATIONAL LABOR UNIONS.
• BLACK PANTHERS
• ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS.
• NAACP.
• CZARS THAN ONLY ANSWER TO OBAMA
• POLITICANS WHO FORGOT WHO PUT THEM IN WASHINGTON, AND DON’T CARE.
• BIG CORPARATIONS
• A PRESIDENT WHO THINKS HE IS THE SUPREME RULER.
• A PRESIDENT WHO CHANGES OUR BILL OF RIGHTS.
• CHANGES THE MEANING OF WORDS. HAS IS OWN “LANGUAGE”
• A PRESIDENT WHO IS KICKING “GOD”OUT OF WASHINGTON.
• A PRESIDENT WHO HAS SURROUNDED HIMSELF WITH RADICALS, FELONS, COMMUNISTS, ATHEIST.
• WAKE UP AMERICA BEFORE IT IS TO LATE!!!!
• OBAMA  HAS DISCREDITED OUR MILITARY
• THE CIA.
• THE FBI.
• HOMELAND SECURITY.
• SECRET SERVICE.
• OUR MONEY IS DEPRECIATING EVERY DAY.
• WE ARE NO LONGER A WORLD POWER.
• CHINA OWNS USE!
• WHAT IS LEFT TO DESTORY.

Dollar Report

Dollar Report.

Oath Keepers » Blog Archive » Pat Buchanan “Traditional Americans are losing their nation”

Oath Keepers » Blog Archive » Pat Buchanan “Traditional Americans are losing their nation”.

WE NEED A STAND UP GUY IN THIS COUNTRY

NANCY PELOSI IS CLOSING THE DOOR TO EVERYONE BUT THE LIBERAL LEFT WING DEMOCRATES. THE DEMOCRATS ARE PASSING A 1900 PAGE HEALTH CARE BILL BEHIND CLOSED DOORS. 90% OF THEM HAVE NOT READ THE BILL!!! WHERE ARE THE REPUBLICANS,INDEPENDENTS,AND ALL THE OTHER PEOPLE WHO DON’T EVEN VOTE OR CARE.THEY ARE ALL HIDING BEHIND THE SKIRTS OF “MICHELLE BACHMAN(R.MN.)

SHE IS THE ONLY ONE WITH ANY NERVE AND TELLS IT THE WAY IT IS. SHE WOULD LIKE THE PEOPLE TO MARCH ON WASHINGTON AND SHE WILL TAKE THEM IN THROUGHT THE CLOSED DOORS.

“AMERICA IT IS TIME TO MAN UP!!!”

SOMEONE SHOULD HAVE BEEN AT THAT CLOSED DOOR WITH A CAMERA AND FORCED THERE WAY IN!!!

 

GOOGLE JOINS OBAMA’S SYNDICATE

Image via CrunchBase

Andrew McLaughlin, Google’s head of global public policy, is leaving the company to join the Obama administration, according to two people with knowledge of Mr. McLaughlin’s plans.

Mr. McLaughlin will be deputy chief technology officer, reporting to Aneesh Chopra, the chief technology officer, who was previously Virginia’s secretary of technology, said these people, who agreed to speak only if their names were not used because Mr. McLaughlin’s appointment had not been announced.

Mr. McLaughlin’s move is likely to renew concerns among some Google rivals and public policy groups about Google’s growing clout in Washington.

A Google spokesman confirmed that Mr. McLaughlin was leaving the company. Mr. McLaughlin did not immediately respond to an e-mail message seeking comment. An e-mail message to the White House press office was not immediately answered.

Mr. McLaughlin joined Google about five years ago and directed the company’s public policy efforts. Previously he was an executive at the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers, a nonprofit group that helps coordinate the Internet’s address system. He is an emeritus fellow at the Berkman Center for Internet and Society at Harvard, and was part of Mr. Obama’s transition team as a member of the Technology, Innovation and Government Reform Policy Working Group.

Mr. McLaughlin is the latest Google executive to take an official role in the Obama administration. Eric Schmidt, Google’s chief executive, has been a close adviser to President Obama’s transition team and is now a member of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology.

Katie Stanton, a former Google project manager, joined the White House as its director of citizen participation. And Sonal Shah, former head of global development at Google.org, now heads the White House Office of Social Innovation.

Some critics fear that the growing presence of former Google employees in the administration could lead to purchasing and policy decisions that improperly benefit the company at a time when the company’s power is likely to come under increasing scrutiny from regulators. Already the Federal Trade Commission is looking into whether the ties between the boards of Google and Apple amount to a violation of antitrust laws. The Justice Department is inquiring into the antitrust implications of Google’s settlement of a lawsuit with publishers and authors.

In a statement, Google said: “We understand that in order to be successful in Washington we need relationships on both sides of the aisle, and we have worked over the past few years to strengthen those relationships. As for a small handful of Googlers leaving the company to join the administration, we respect their decision to work in public service and wish them all the best in their new and exciting jobs.”

DID YOU GET A NOTICE THAT YOUR GOOGLE E-MAIL WAS BEING CANCELLED???? I DID!!!

THE PATROIT

PROOF OF CITIZENSHIP SHOULD BE REQUIRED TO GET GOVERNMENT HEALTH AID

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God, Guns, & Free Speech

Americans are losing their Rights,Values,and Traditions “In God We Trust“

Monday, September 7, 2009

83% Say Proof of Citizenship Should Be Required to Get Government Health Aid

From: Rasmussen

Monday, September 07, 2009

The health care plan proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats contains many controversial items that divide the general public. However, one area of consensus among the public is the desire to restrict government health care benefits to U.S. citizens only.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of voters nationwide say that people should be required to prove they are a citizen of the United States before receiving government health care subsidies. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 12% disagree and five percent (5%) are not sure.

IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW AMERICANS REACT WHEN O’BUMMER INTRODUCES HIS IILEAGAL  INVADERS REFORM!!!!

Full Story:83% Say Proof of Citizenship Should Be Required

THE AMNESTY BILL-“COVERS 20MILLION ILLEGALS”

DID YOU KNOW THAT THIS BILL WOULD  ALLOW ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS TO GET AMNESTY??? ALSO SO ILLEGAL  IMMIGRANT GANG MEMBERS TO GET AMNESTY.

The views expressed herein are those of the individual author and may differ from those expressed by

other Bear Stearns Asset Management Inc. and Bear Stearns & Co. departments, including any of the

Bear Stearns & Co. research departments.

Bear Stearns Asset Management Inc. 383 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10179

Asset Management

The Underground Labor Force

Is Rising To The Surface

Robert Justich and Betty Ng, CFA

January 3, 2005

Illegal immigrants constitute a large and growing force in the political, economic, and

investment spheres in The United States. The size of this extra-legal segment of the

population is significantly understated because the official U.S.Census does not capture

the total number of illegal immigrants. In turn, the growth of the underground work force

is increasingly concealing the economic impact of this below-market labor supply. Our

research has identified significant evidence that the census estimates of undocumented

immigrants may be capturing as little as half of the total undocumented population. This

gross undercounting is a serious accounting issue, which could ultimately lead to

government policy errors in the future.

Though we cannot conduct an independent census of the United States population, as

investors, we need not accept the accuracy of the official census immigration statistics,

which are widely recognized as incomplete. There are many ancillary sources of data

that provide evidence that the rate of growth in the immigrant population is much greater

than the Census Bureau statistics. School enrollments, foreign remittances, border

crossings, and housing permits are some of the statistics that point to a far greater rate of

change in the immigrant population than the census numbers. At the risk of appearing

dogmatic or taking a leap of faith, we have applied the rate of growth from these other

areas and have drawn several conclusions about the current immigration population:

1. The number of illegal immigrants in the United States may be as high as 20

million people, more than double the official 9 million people estimated by the

Census Bureau.

2. The total number of legalized immigrants entering The United States since 1990

has averaged 962,000 per year. Several credible studies indicate that the

number of illegal entries has recently crept up to 3 million per year, triple the

authorized figure.

3. Undocumented immigrants are gaining a larger share of the job market, and

hold approximately 12 to 15 million jobs in the United States (8% of the

employed)

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Asset Management

4. Four to six million jobs have shifted to the underground market, as small

businesses take advantage of the vulnerability of illegal residents.

5. In addition to circumventing the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986,

many employers of illegal workers have taken to using unrecorded revenue

receipts. Employer enforcement has succumbed to political pressure.

6. Cell phones, internet and low-cost travel have allowed immigrants easier illegal

access to the United States and increased their ability to find employment and

circumvent immigration laws.

We believe that immigration is becoming one of the most significant economic themes of

this decade. The investment implications for 2005 and 2006 will hinge on the

forthcoming government policy decisions in amnesty, employer enforcement, and

monitoring systems, as well as the effective enforcement of the laws. Over the coming

year, we intend to monitor and analyze the benefits and costs of assimilating a

demographic group the size of New York State into the financial and legal mainstream.

Though this challenge is not quite the magnitude of, say, German reunification, we

believe most investors are underestimating the magnitude and significance of this theme.

The growing extralegal system in the United States has distorted economic statistics and

government budget projections. The stealth labor force has enhanced many of the

economic releases that investors follow closely. Payroll numbers understate true job

growth and inflation has been artificially dampened by this seemingly endless supply of

low-wage workers. The large infusion of the imported labor supply has reduced average

annual earnings by approximately 4 to 6 percent. Real estate prices have been boosted by

the foreign population infusion. The productivity miracle may be exaggerated because

the government is incorporating the output of millions of illegal immigrants but not

counting their full labor input. Long-term budget projections are probably overstating the

potential growth of the U.S. economy because productivity is inflated. Or, stated

differently, are long-term growth projections dependent on a steady flow of illegal

immigration that no one is taking into account?

As census procedures improve and the immigration numbers are revised closer to reality,

many of these questions will be answered, and public perceptions will change. Many

government forecasts, policies and procedures will be modified to compensate for the

undercounting. The public sector will incur significant costs in assimilating a reclassified

population. An abrupt increase in employer enforcement could have a negative impact

on GDP. In the short-term, an adjustment to immigration policies could squeeze small

business profits and increase the budget deficits. Longer-term, we believe the effects

will be more balanced as this invisible work force provides aid to the demographic

2

Asset Management

problems of social security. Increased enforcement of legal employment procedures

should also boost tax revenues.

The implications of these massive inflows of workers are enormous. Although there are

economic benefits to cheap, illegal labor, there are significant costs associated with

circumventing the labor laws. The social expenses of health care, retirement funding,

education and law enforcement are potentially accruing at $30 billion per year. Many of

these costs lag and will not be realized until the next economic downturn and beyond as

new immigrants require a safety net.

On the revenue side, the United States may be foregoing $35 billion a year in income tax

collections because of the number of jobs that are now off the books. Illegal aliens offer

below market labor costs and many employers circumvent regulations to take advantage

of the laissez faire government enforcement process. We estimate that approximately 5

million illegal workers are collecting wages on a cash basis and are avoiding income

taxes.

The United States is simply hooked on cheap, illegal workers and deferring the costs of

providing public services to these quasi-Americans. Illegal immigration has been

America’s way of competing with the low-wage forces of Asia and Latin America, and

deserves more credit for the steroid-enhanced effect it has had on productivity, low

inflation, housing starts, and retail sales.

From a personal standpoint, our research does not take sides with any of the emotional

arguments of the

with immigrants, local business owners, realtors, and police officers. This project

afforded us the opportunity to see into the past and look into the future of the United

States.

Crossfire mindset. We are grateful to have had the opportunity to speak

Problems With The Census: The Missing Half

The Census Bureau estimates that 8.7 million people are illegally residing in the United

States, while the Urban Institute estimates a total of 9.3 million people. The Current

Population Survey (CPS), a joint project of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census

Bureau, puts the number at 9.2 million. In a recent report released in November 2004,

the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) stated that the CPS could have missed as many

as 10% of illegal aliens, suggesting a total illegal population of 10 million as of March

2004. We believe that these estimates fall short. The Census Bureau’s counting process

for the migrant population has some shortcomings. According to our discussions with

illegal immigrants, they avoid responding to census questionnaires. For this reason, the

official estimates do not fully capture this group. The CPS, the Census Bureau, the

Urban Institute, and the former INS (now part of the Department of Homeland Security)

all use similar processes to determine the total number of immigrants, and which

immigrants should be categorized as legal and illegal. In essence, this has created a

3

Asset Management

circular equation that relies on a singular source of inaccurate statistics that gives the

impression of independent, multiple verifications.

According to a recent study by the Migration Research Unit, University College London,

a wide range of methods have been used to measure immigration flows, which by

definition eludes registration and statistical coverage. “Estimating the numbers of illegal

resident persons in a country is a task made extremely difficult by the unrecorded nature

of the phenomenon, by the problems of the data that are recorded and the different

definitions, data sources, collection methods and legislative differences between

countries. The dynamism and fluctuation in the size of the illegal population is as much

related to the intricacies of the immigration law as to the movements of the migrants

themselves.” Studies of methods used to calculate the illegal population have concluded

that no existing method “provides a well-founded or rigorous method by which to

measure the illegal population.”

The Congressional Budget Office acknowledges “deriving estimates of the number of

unauthorized, or illegal, immigrants is difficult because the government lacks

administrative records of their arrival and departure, and because they tend to be

undercounted in the census and other surveys of the population. Unauthorized

immigrants generally fall into one of two categories: those who entered the United States

illegally and without inspection and those who were admitted legally as visitors or

temporary residents but overstayed their visa.”

According to Maxine Margolis, author of

City

recorded only 9,200 Brazilians in New York City, while the local Brazilian consulate

estimated 100,000 Brazilians at that time. The Brazilian foreign office placed the number

at 230,000; Dr. Margolis also noted that comparisons of the Boston Archdiocese and

Brazilian consulate records with U.S. census records show a startling 10 to 1 difference.

The latest census taken in 2000 significantly revised the number of illegal immigrants

upward versus 1990 projections. The INS also increased their estimates. Upward

revisions to such projections have been a consistent trend.

An Invisible Minority: Brazilians in New York, the discrepancies started well over a decade ago. The 1990 census, for example,

The Implications of Illegal Labor

Regardless of the politics of immigration, getting an accurate read on the size of the

current wave is important. Tax collections, budget projections and school capacity

planning are a few of the public sectors functions that rely on accurate head counts.

Eventually, the official statistics will catch up with the new reality that global migration

is exploding. When population and labor force statistics are properly synchronized, we

will see an impact on financial markets, economic statistics and social policy.

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Asset Management

These revisions will bring some difficult decisions to the surface, as it seems that we have

been living in a state of denial for almost a decade. If indeed, the number of illegal

immigrants is 20 million people, approximately the equivalent of New York State, any

amnesty or legalization and assimilation process will require significant public sector

resources.

Illegal immigrants work very hard to conceal their identities and successfully avoid being

counted. Even apprehended illegal migrants will hide important personal data on their

status to avoid removal. Census officials and academics underestimate the ingenuity and

the efficiency of the communications network among immigrants. Understandably,

illegal immigrants go to great lengths to maintain a low profile and conceal their

identities, not only for census purposes, but for tax purposes as well. The risk–reward

trade of dodging census inquiries is severely skewed. Migrants that pay large portions of

future earnings to gain entry into the United States make the sacrifice of leaving their

families behind, or have trekked through physical obstacles and thousands of miles;

accordingly, they have no downside risk in discarding census surveys.

Employers also have incentive to hire undocumented workers off the books, taking

advantages of inefficient immigration enforcement. The competitive winds of deflation

from overseas labor markets have forced U.S. employers to find extra-legal, innovative

ways to capitalize on sources of cheaper labor to stay competitive. These employers

have, in turn, placed pressure on the government to ignore the flood of cheap labor. INS

enforcement of employer violations has decreased dramatically over the last five years.

This trend is counter intuitive, given the substantial rise in illegal immigration during a

new era of national security.

5

Asset Management

Evidence Beyond Anecdotal

The strongest evidence supporting our theory that the actual illegal population is double

the consensus estimates lies within several micro trends at the community level. We see

very dramatic increases in services required in communities that have become gateways

for immigration. States with high populations of undocumented immigrants have

experienced extra demand for public services. The top nine states, California, Texas,

Florida, New York, Illinois , New Jersey, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina account

for approximately 50% of the undocumented population. Although the federal

government has the sole authority to govern immigration flows, the responsibility for

providing support to legal and illegal immigrants rests with the state and local

governments

The de facto administration at the state and local level reinforces our premise that we

must look at local statistics to extrapolate the most reliable headcount of immigrants.

The increases in services, including public school enrollment, language proficiency

programs, and building permits all point to a rate of change far greater than the

census numbers would imply for the demand for these local services.

these areas indicates that more people are moving into these communities than the

official estimates.

The growth in

Chart 1. INS (now USCIS) Enforcements

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Source: US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)

Investigations of Employers with Unauthorized Aliens:

Cases Completed

Arrests from Investigating Employers with

Unauthorized Aliens

6

Asset Management

Based on several criteria, we believe that immigration is growing significantly faster than

the consensus estimates:

1. Remittances

2. Housing permits in gateway communities

3. School enrollment

4. Cross border flows

Remittances

Many immigrants, particularly those with immediate families in their native country,

provide financial support to those left behind. Remittances are surging because many

immigrants send home on average $1,400 to $1,500 per year through money transfers.

In 2002, people sent $133 billion worldwide, according to the World Bank. Developing

countries accounted for $88 billion of the total, up 33% from $60 billion in 2000.

Countries that are experiencing migration outflows are having very large increases in

remittances. Remittances from the United States to Mexico have tripled to $13 billion

between 1995 and 2003. For Mexico, this is an important source of funds that has

surpassed foreign direct investments and tourism receipts in 2003, and is second only to

petroleum export revenues.

Most importantly, this explosion in remittances is not consistent with the estimates of

legal and illegal immigrants from Mexico. The rate of increase in remittances far

exceeds the increases in Mexicans residing in the U.S. and their wage growth. Between

1995 and 2003, the official tally of Mexicans has climbed 56%, and median weekly wage

has increased by 10%. Yet total remittances jumped 199% over the same period. Even

considering the declining costs of money transfers, the growth of remittances remains

astounding.

7

Asset Management

The rapid addition of bank accounts by Mexicans living in the U.S. is also revealing.

According to the Pew Hispanic Center, 39% of surveyed Latino immigrants cited legal

status as a concern for opening bank accounts. This motivates many immigrants to remit

cash through private money centers such as Western Union and Money Gram, which

charge very high fees. Since late 2001, however, many major banks including Citibank,

Bank of America, and Wells Fargo Bank began accepting

identity cards for Mexicans living in the U.S. These cards show the local addresses of the

holders, and any legal or illegal Mexican can obtain it at one of the 45 Mexican

consulates across the country. The removal of legal status as a concern for opening and

using bank accounts has led to a boom in retail business for some banks. Wells Fargo

opens an average of 700 new accounts everyday based on this identification, representing

the fastest growing segment for the bank. To date, around 2.5 million

been issued, and the number is growing.

matriculas, photographedmatriculas have

Housing permits

In major immigrant gateway cities, the influx of immigrants has led to overcrowded

dwellings and a housing boom unexplained by official population growth. Many illegal

immigrants, especially those who just arrive, reside in congested dwellings in cities, with

the hope of finding jobs and upgrading to better living conditions later. These congested

dwellings often house far more tenants than they are built for, and their landlords have no

qualms about cramming in additional renters for a surcharge. Even so, new housing

demand in these illegal immigrant enclaves outstrips those in other areas.

Chart 2. Mexican Remittances from the US, 1995-2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, Banco de Mexico, Informes Anuales

Index

Mexicans in the US (Indexed)

Mean Weekly Wages for Hispanics (Indexed)

Total Remittances (Indexed)

Mexican remittances from the US have jumped dramatically since 2000. Surveyed wage growth

and the offically estimated Mexican population growth in the US do not adequately explain this

spike.

$13bn

8

Asset Management

In New Jersey, the three gateway towns of New Brunswick, Elizabeth, and Newark

exemplify this trend. According to the census, the combined population in these three

towns between 1990 and 2003 grew only 5.6%, less than the 9% reported in the rest of

the three corresponding counties. Yet housing permits in these three towns shot up over

six-fold, while the rest of the three counties only saw a three-fold increase. More

importantly, 80% of these permits were designated for multiple dwellings, so the

corresponding increase in people accommodated are even greater. Official statistics state

that illegal immigrants in New Jersey have jumped 110% during the same period – an

estimate that is inconsistent with the housing statistics, our discussions with local realtors

and the changes that we have visually observed in the demographic landscape.

School Enrollment

The major immigration gateways have experienced school enrollments much higher than

projections. The decrease in the number of births in the past decade had led education

administrators to expect decreasing school enrollments as a post echo boom trend. A

higher immigration rate, however, has offset the impact of declining births. The

enrollment statistics for a sample of school districts that included Queens, New York,

Elizabeth, Newark and New Brunswick, New Jersey and Wake County in North Carolina

revealed explosive growth in immigrant students, far beyond numbers consistent with

legal migration limits.

Chart 3. Housing Permits in New Jersey Immigrant Gateways: New Brunswick, Elizabeth,

and Newark

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: US Census Bureau, NJ Dept of Workforce & Labor Development

No. of permits

Multiple Units

Single Units

These three towns saw lower official population growth (4%) than the rest of their respective

counties (7%). Yet their residential housing permits jumped sixfold vs. threefold in the counties,

with 80% slated for multiple dwellings.

Even if the offiical 110% increase in New Jersey illegal immigrants all moved to these three

towns, the housing permit spike was hard to explain.

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Asset Management

According to the Urban Institute, children under 18 comprise approximately 17% of the

undocumented population, with only half attending school, making the sharp increases in

school enrollment more telling. We can extrapolate that for every undocumented

immigrant child in the public school system, there are potentially 8 to 9 additional

undocumented men, women and children living in the United States.

In New York City, nearly one-quarter of the general population is under the age of 18.

Approximately 55% of these children were enrolled in grades pre-K-12 in the 2001-2002

school year. It appears that the ratio of illegal immigrant school children to adults is

much lower than the general population, and understandably so. Historically, the

transition of illegal immigrants is lead by single males, followed by single females, who

establish a presence, a job and home before starting a family or relocating other family

members from their native countries.

Chart 4. Student Enrollments in Wake County, North Carolina

100,000

102,000

104,000

106,000

108,000

110,000

112,000

114,000

116,000

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

Source: Wake County Public School System

No. of Students

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

%

Projected

Actual

Historically, projected and actual % Difference

public school enrollments differed

only by 0.08%. This gap has

widened substantially, driven by

higher than expected elementary

school enrollments.

10

Asset Management

With a total enrollment of 1.1 million students, the NYC public school system is the

largest in the nation. Immigrant student enrollment for the 1998-2001 period was

103,000, with Queens accounting for the largest share, 37,000. Between 1990 and 2001,

more than half of New York City’s school districts increased their enrollments 10% or

more, driven by a high number of immigrant students.

Demographic and enrollment trends according to the New York City Public Schools

system state:

•

number of births on school enrollment.” Administrators have been surprised that

school population growth significantly exceeded earlier projections, thus creating

overcrowding in many school districts.

“To a significant degree, high rates of immigration offset the effect of a declining

•

registered for grades pre-K-12 in New York City Public Schools, with many

predominant countries of origin, other than Mexico, including the Dominican

Republic, China, Jamaica, Mexico, Pakistan, Ecuador, Colombia and Haiti.”

“In the three-year period from 1999 to 2001, 102,867 immigrant students

Chart 5. Declining Births and Increasing School Enrollments in New York City

550,000

570,000

590,000

610,000

630,000

650,000

670,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Source: NYC Dept of Planning, NYC Dept of Health

Despite declining births in New York City, immigration has

fueled increases in elementary and intermediate school

enrollments.

PS/IS enrollments (5 year lag) minus resident births

11

Asset Management

Cross Border Flows

Pulitzer Prize reporters Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele recently reported for

TIME

magazine that “the number of illegal aliens flooding into the United States this year will

total 3 million. It will be the largest wave since 2001 and roughly triple the number of

immigrants that will come to the U.S. by legal means.” The

according to Mr. Barlett, relied not only on figures projected by the U.S. Border Patrol,

but also on the reporter’s extensive investigations along the Mexican border at factories,

local communities, and the district offices of the U.S. Border Patrol.

Though more resources have been designated to patrolling the Mexican border,

TIME investigation,TIME

argues that “the government doesn’t want to fix it, and the politicians, as usual, are

dodging the issue, even though public opinion polls show that Americans

overwhelmingly favor a crackdown on illegal immigration.” It can be strongly argued

that enforcement at the work place is a much more efficient way of controlling illegal

flows because the primary incentive for sneaking into the United States is money and

jobs. A telephone verification system was designed under the auspices of the

Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 for employers to confirm the legal status of

potential employees. As of today, this system is still not running.

Migration is a Global Macro Trend

The world is undergoing the largest migration wave since the late 1800’s. Over 175

million people are in motion. The dramatic increase in human mobility has left the public

sector and policy makers behind. The specific and general understanding of migration

flows has not kept pace with the growth, complexity and implications of this

phenomenon. The economic implications of demographics have increased tremendously

over the last 20 years. In no other time period during the last century have demographics

undergone such a subcutaneous change in the United States.

The human race is on the move – human mobility is increasing drastically, according to

the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Population Division of the

United Nations. It estimates the total number of international migrants is approximately

175 million or 2.9% of the world population. The migration wave has two components –

transnational and rural to urban, and these waves are changing the dynamics of

government, economics and lifestyles more than any other driver of human behavior.

Governments are seriously behind in recording and comprehending the current

phenomenon, and more importantly, governments are making economic and social policy

decisions based on flawed information. Like corrupt corporate accounting practices or

poor national security information, the United States is struggling with its immigration

policies because of false assumptions and unreliable data.

12

Asset Management

Far Reaching Investment Implications Hinging on Government Policy and

Enforcement

The importance, rightfully or wrongfully, that markets place on economic data can be

demonstrated in the bond market reactions to employment releases. Employment

releases are like earnings releases in that investors count on the information to be

accurate, within a reasonable margin of error, so that good analysis can lead to prudent

evaluations of risk and reward.

In the case of household employment numbers, there is a 90% confidence interval for

monthly changes in employment, which equates to a margin of error of approximately

plus or minus 350,000. A 350,000 margin of error on a labor force of 135 million people

is acceptable, but the current migration wave is distorting total employment by the

millions, we believe. This presents serious statistical problems that can lead to faulty

investment decisions. Unless the government and investors get the numbers on

immigration correct, the market will fail to grasp the extent of the required policy

changes. The consequent adjustments could be drastic and disruptive to the bond

market.

To a large extent, U.S. immigration policy is adhoc, according to Robert Shiller, Stanley

B. Resor Professor of Economics, Yale University:

The system that developed countries currently use to keep people from lessdeveloped

countries out is inefficient. The United States has strict immigration

policies but lax enforcement; so many people manage to slip illegally over the

border. Once here, the illegal immigrants pay dearly in terms of quality of life.

Then, periodically, the United States considers granting amnesty to illegal

immigrants. This is a crazy system, and we could imagine a better one that could

someday handle immigration.

Belated policy responses no doubt complicate efforts to assess the number of illegal

migrants. However, the focus on the migration issue is growing. The profile of the

immigration topic is rising in the media, the legislature, and in grass root movements.

Many documentary and feature films are exploring the immigration themes. State and

local governments and medical institutions in the gateway states are being financially

impacted by the increased demand generated by these new American residents.

Arizona’s Proposition 200 may represent a new trend to address the state and local strains

associated with this unanticipated and underestimated population growth. We expect that

the coverage, the tangential issues and the political emotions will be magnified in 2005.

In this paper, we have merely outlined what we see as the magnitude of the current

migration wave. We have barely touched on the economic and investment implications.

In the coming months, we will explore further the specific relationship between public

policy, enforcement and the more specific implications for the economy and the bond

markets.

13

Asset Management

References

Fernando Lozano Ascencio, 2004. “Tendencias recientes de las remesas de los migrantes mexicanos en

Estados Unidos.” Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinaries de la UNAM.

Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele, September 20, 2004. “Who Left the Door Open?” TIME

magazine.

Steven A. Camarota, October 2004. “A Jobless Recovery? Immigrant Gains and Native Losses.” Center

for Immigration Studies.

Steven A. Camarota, November 2004. “Economy Slowed, But Immigration Didn’t. The Foreign-Born

Population, 2000-2004.” Center for Immigration Studies

Joel Dreyfuss, Scott Silvestri and Thomas Back, March 2004. “Western Union. Margins Shrinking. Send

Customers.” Bloomberg Markets.

Kevin L. Kliesen and Howard J. Wall, April 2004. “A Jobless Recovery with More People Working?”

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Maxine L. Margolis, 1998. “An Invisible Minority. Brazilians in New York City.” Allyn & Bacon

Kevin O’Neil, June 1, 2003. “Remittances from the United States in Context.” Migration Policy Institute.

Jeffrey Passel, May 22, 2002. “New Estimates of the Undocumented Population.” Migration Policy

Institute.

Charles Pinkerton, Gail McLaughlan, John Salt, 2004 “Sizing the illegally resident population in the UK.”

Migration Research Unit, University College, London

Ray Stone, January 21, 2004. “Payrolls – Illegal Immigrant Workers, the Missing Link?”

Dilip Ratha, October 1, 2004. “Understanding the Importance of Remittances.” Migration Policy Institute.

Edwin S. Rubenstein, 2004. “Illegal Immigration – Unmentionable Answer to Household vs. Payroll

Survey Controversy.” ESR Research Economic Consulta

Roberto Suro, et al, 2002. “Billions in Motion: Latino Immigrants Remittances and Banking.” Pew

Hispanic Center Report and the Multilateral Investment Fund of the Inter-American Development Bank.

“World Migration, 2003.” The International Organization for Migration.

Mexican Embassy, Washington D.C.

The New Jersey Department of Education

New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

The New York State Department of Education

US Census Bureau

US Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics.

US Border Patrol, telephone interview.

Wake Country Public School System, North Carolina

Wells Fargo Bank, October 2004, interview.

World Bank.

 

DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.” – Declaration of Independence

“A well regulated militia,being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed”- 2nd Amendment to the Bill of Rights, Ratified December 15,1791

“The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government.” – Thomas Jefferson

“It is The Duty of the Patriot to protect his country from his government.” – Thomas Paine, The Father of the American Revolution
We have become a Nation of Pussies, Whiners, and Wimps.We are allowing the Goverment, Judges, and the far left Secular Progressives to steal our God given rights!

I am tired of the Democrats who have become FASCISTS and the Republicans who have NO BALLS!

I am tired of Judges Advocating from the bench to change the will of the people

I am tired of the Political Correctness in this country, where if you say anything againt the fascist left they accuse you of being Racist,Homophobic,Sexist, Ageist or anything else they can think of to keep you from speaking, it is an attempt to STEAL your 1st Amendment Right,
“FREEDOM OF SPEECH”!!!

I am tired of the fascist left trying to take my guns in an attempt to preserve human life as they kill babys in abortion clinics, HYPOCRITES!!

I am tired of the Goverment telling us that they will protect us while they leave our borders wide open in a time of war!!!
If they gave a shit about you or you family’s safety they would have put the Military on the border on 9/11!!

I am tired of all the illegal immigrants coming into this Country, protesting while waving the Mexican flag and demanding their American rights. GET THE HELL OUT AND COME HERE LEGALLY!!! Then you can have the same right as the rest of us.

Think about it!

Its Time to wake up!!

“Tolerance is the virtue of a man without convictions.”

CZAR OBAMA HAS PUT US ALL ON NOTICE!!!!

Image by Lori Spindler via Flickr

OBAMAIS DOING EXACTLY AS HE SAID HE WOULD DO. “CHANGE THE COUNTRY”. WELL HE IS DOING IT. HE HAS HIS PRIVATE GOVERNMENT THAT DO NOT HAVE TO ANSWER  TO ANYONE! “36 CZARS WHO ARE IN CHARGE OF ALL PARTS OF THE ECONOMY. THEY ONLY ANSWERTO OBAMA. HE IS GOING TO GIVE  US SOCIALIZED MEDICINE WHETHER  WE LIKE IT OR NOT! ANY CONGRESSMAN WHO DOESN’T VOTE FOR IT WILL BE PUNISHED.

    HE  IS CHANGING THE CONSTITUTION, AND THE BILL OF RIGHTS

  ALSO CHANGING THE WORDING IN DICTONARYS!!!

AND TRYING TO TAKE RELIGION OUT OUT OF OUR LIVES!!!

THE NEW HEALTH CARE BILL WILL COST OVER A TRILLION DOLLARS. DON’T FORGET WE ARE BROKE!!

(ATTENTION)  NEW INFORMATION- DEMOCRATS WANT THIS BILL TO COVER 12MILLION ILEGAL ALIENS!!!!!!

GENERATIONS OF OUR GRANDCHILDREN WE BE TRYING TO PAY FOR THIS.

THE LATEST IS ONE WAY THAT HEALTH CARE WILL TAKE CARE OF ITSELF IS TO GIVE THE YOUNG PRIOTY OVER SENIORS FOR HEALTH CARE!!!!!  HOW IS THAT FOR A DISGRACE!!!!

OUR DOLLAR IS ABOUT TO BE REPLACED BY THE “EURO” OR WHAT EVER THE CHINESE US FOR MONEY!

THE GO ERNMENT IS RUNNING CAR COMPANYS, MORTGAGE COMPANY’S, UNIONS, THE NATIONAL MEDIA.

FANNY AND FREDDIE OWN 56% OF ALL MORTGAGES IN THE COUNTRY. THAT MEANS THE GOV. OWN THEM.

ACORN, THE ACLU, THE NAACP. THE FEDERAL RESERVE, AND THE SUPREME COURT.

CZAR OBAMA AND FAMILY ARE TRAVELING AROUND THE WORLD KISSING HANDS AND “ASSES” OF OUR ENEMY’S AND TELLING THE WORLD THAT HE WILL FIX EVERYTHING. HE IS ALWAYS ON THE ROAD IN THIS COUNTRY RUNNING HIS POPULARITY CONTEST.

WHO IS AT THE SWITCH IN WASHINGTON. WHOEVER IT IS ASLEEP.

 

 THE REPUBLICAN  PARTY IS NOT ALLOWED TO VOTE ON NEW LEGISLATION. THE LIBERAL LEFT WINGDEMOCRATS HAVE THE GOVERNMENT ALL TO THEM SELFS. THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS OUT TO “LUNCH”

IT IS TIME TO CLEAN OUT WASHINGTON AND START OVER WITH A NEW PARTY AND PEOPLE WHO ARE QUALIFIED TO BE IN GOVERNMENT. THE DEMOCRATIC LEADERSHIP, NANCY PELOSI, HARRY REID, BARNY FRANK, CHRIS DODD DON’T HAVE A CLUE AS TO WHAT THE PEOPLE OF THIS COUNTRY WANT, AND THEY DON’T CARE.

DO YOU WANT PEOPLE LIKE THIS RUNNING YOUR LIFE???  I DON’T!!!

WAKE UP AMERICA IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A “DICTATORSHIP” IN THE MAKING.

AND THE DEMS COULDN’T RUN A “HOTDOG STAND”

THE PATRIOT