Posts from the ‘smugglers’ Category

chris Mathews interview

object width=”425″ height=”344″>

Advertisements

THE AMNESTY BILL-“COVERS 20MILLION ILLEGALS”

DID YOU KNOW THAT THIS BILL WOULD  ALLOW ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS TO GET AMNESTY??? ALSO SO ILLEGAL  IMMIGRANT GANG MEMBERS TO GET AMNESTY.

The views expressed herein are those of the individual author and may differ from those expressed by

other Bear Stearns Asset Management Inc. and Bear Stearns & Co. departments, including any of the

Bear Stearns & Co. research departments.

Bear Stearns Asset Management Inc. 383 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10179

Asset Management

The Underground Labor Force

Is Rising To The Surface

Robert Justich and Betty Ng, CFA

January 3, 2005

Illegal immigrants constitute a large and growing force in the political, economic, and

investment spheres in The United States. The size of this extra-legal segment of the

population is significantly understated because the official U.S.Census does not capture

the total number of illegal immigrants. In turn, the growth of the underground work force

is increasingly concealing the economic impact of this below-market labor supply. Our

research has identified significant evidence that the census estimates of undocumented

immigrants may be capturing as little as half of the total undocumented population. This

gross undercounting is a serious accounting issue, which could ultimately lead to

government policy errors in the future.

Though we cannot conduct an independent census of the United States population, as

investors, we need not accept the accuracy of the official census immigration statistics,

which are widely recognized as incomplete. There are many ancillary sources of data

that provide evidence that the rate of growth in the immigrant population is much greater

than the Census Bureau statistics. School enrollments, foreign remittances, border

crossings, and housing permits are some of the statistics that point to a far greater rate of

change in the immigrant population than the census numbers. At the risk of appearing

dogmatic or taking a leap of faith, we have applied the rate of growth from these other

areas and have drawn several conclusions about the current immigration population:

1. The number of illegal immigrants in the United States may be as high as 20

million people, more than double the official 9 million people estimated by the

Census Bureau.

2. The total number of legalized immigrants entering The United States since 1990

has averaged 962,000 per year. Several credible studies indicate that the

number of illegal entries has recently crept up to 3 million per year, triple the

authorized figure.

3. Undocumented immigrants are gaining a larger share of the job market, and

hold approximately 12 to 15 million jobs in the United States (8% of the

employed)

1

Asset Management

4. Four to six million jobs have shifted to the underground market, as small

businesses take advantage of the vulnerability of illegal residents.

5. In addition to circumventing the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986,

many employers of illegal workers have taken to using unrecorded revenue

receipts. Employer enforcement has succumbed to political pressure.

6. Cell phones, internet and low-cost travel have allowed immigrants easier illegal

access to the United States and increased their ability to find employment and

circumvent immigration laws.

We believe that immigration is becoming one of the most significant economic themes of

this decade. The investment implications for 2005 and 2006 will hinge on the

forthcoming government policy decisions in amnesty, employer enforcement, and

monitoring systems, as well as the effective enforcement of the laws. Over the coming

year, we intend to monitor and analyze the benefits and costs of assimilating a

demographic group the size of New York State into the financial and legal mainstream.

Though this challenge is not quite the magnitude of, say, German reunification, we

believe most investors are underestimating the magnitude and significance of this theme.

The growing extralegal system in the United States has distorted economic statistics and

government budget projections. The stealth labor force has enhanced many of the

economic releases that investors follow closely. Payroll numbers understate true job

growth and inflation has been artificially dampened by this seemingly endless supply of

low-wage workers. The large infusion of the imported labor supply has reduced average

annual earnings by approximately 4 to 6 percent. Real estate prices have been boosted by

the foreign population infusion. The productivity miracle may be exaggerated because

the government is incorporating the output of millions of illegal immigrants but not

counting their full labor input. Long-term budget projections are probably overstating the

potential growth of the U.S. economy because productivity is inflated. Or, stated

differently, are long-term growth projections dependent on a steady flow of illegal

immigration that no one is taking into account?

As census procedures improve and the immigration numbers are revised closer to reality,

many of these questions will be answered, and public perceptions will change. Many

government forecasts, policies and procedures will be modified to compensate for the

undercounting. The public sector will incur significant costs in assimilating a reclassified

population. An abrupt increase in employer enforcement could have a negative impact

on GDP. In the short-term, an adjustment to immigration policies could squeeze small

business profits and increase the budget deficits. Longer-term, we believe the effects

will be more balanced as this invisible work force provides aid to the demographic

2

Asset Management

problems of social security. Increased enforcement of legal employment procedures

should also boost tax revenues.

The implications of these massive inflows of workers are enormous. Although there are

economic benefits to cheap, illegal labor, there are significant costs associated with

circumventing the labor laws. The social expenses of health care, retirement funding,

education and law enforcement are potentially accruing at $30 billion per year. Many of

these costs lag and will not be realized until the next economic downturn and beyond as

new immigrants require a safety net.

On the revenue side, the United States may be foregoing $35 billion a year in income tax

collections because of the number of jobs that are now off the books. Illegal aliens offer

below market labor costs and many employers circumvent regulations to take advantage

of the laissez faire government enforcement process. We estimate that approximately 5

million illegal workers are collecting wages on a cash basis and are avoiding income

taxes.

The United States is simply hooked on cheap, illegal workers and deferring the costs of

providing public services to these quasi-Americans. Illegal immigration has been

America’s way of competing with the low-wage forces of Asia and Latin America, and

deserves more credit for the steroid-enhanced effect it has had on productivity, low

inflation, housing starts, and retail sales.

From a personal standpoint, our research does not take sides with any of the emotional

arguments of the

with immigrants, local business owners, realtors, and police officers. This project

afforded us the opportunity to see into the past and look into the future of the United

States.

Crossfire mindset. We are grateful to have had the opportunity to speak

Problems With The Census: The Missing Half

The Census Bureau estimates that 8.7 million people are illegally residing in the United

States, while the Urban Institute estimates a total of 9.3 million people. The Current

Population Survey (CPS), a joint project of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census

Bureau, puts the number at 9.2 million. In a recent report released in November 2004,

the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) stated that the CPS could have missed as many

as 10% of illegal aliens, suggesting a total illegal population of 10 million as of March

2004. We believe that these estimates fall short. The Census Bureau’s counting process

for the migrant population has some shortcomings. According to our discussions with

illegal immigrants, they avoid responding to census questionnaires. For this reason, the

official estimates do not fully capture this group. The CPS, the Census Bureau, the

Urban Institute, and the former INS (now part of the Department of Homeland Security)

all use similar processes to determine the total number of immigrants, and which

immigrants should be categorized as legal and illegal. In essence, this has created a

3

Asset Management

circular equation that relies on a singular source of inaccurate statistics that gives the

impression of independent, multiple verifications.

According to a recent study by the Migration Research Unit, University College London,

a wide range of methods have been used to measure immigration flows, which by

definition eludes registration and statistical coverage. “Estimating the numbers of illegal

resident persons in a country is a task made extremely difficult by the unrecorded nature

of the phenomenon, by the problems of the data that are recorded and the different

definitions, data sources, collection methods and legislative differences between

countries. The dynamism and fluctuation in the size of the illegal population is as much

related to the intricacies of the immigration law as to the movements of the migrants

themselves.” Studies of methods used to calculate the illegal population have concluded

that no existing method “provides a well-founded or rigorous method by which to

measure the illegal population.”

The Congressional Budget Office acknowledges “deriving estimates of the number of

unauthorized, or illegal, immigrants is difficult because the government lacks

administrative records of their arrival and departure, and because they tend to be

undercounted in the census and other surveys of the population. Unauthorized

immigrants generally fall into one of two categories: those who entered the United States

illegally and without inspection and those who were admitted legally as visitors or

temporary residents but overstayed their visa.”

According to Maxine Margolis, author of

City

recorded only 9,200 Brazilians in New York City, while the local Brazilian consulate

estimated 100,000 Brazilians at that time. The Brazilian foreign office placed the number

at 230,000; Dr. Margolis also noted that comparisons of the Boston Archdiocese and

Brazilian consulate records with U.S. census records show a startling 10 to 1 difference.

The latest census taken in 2000 significantly revised the number of illegal immigrants

upward versus 1990 projections. The INS also increased their estimates. Upward

revisions to such projections have been a consistent trend.

An Invisible Minority: Brazilians in New York, the discrepancies started well over a decade ago. The 1990 census, for example,

The Implications of Illegal Labor

Regardless of the politics of immigration, getting an accurate read on the size of the

current wave is important. Tax collections, budget projections and school capacity

planning are a few of the public sectors functions that rely on accurate head counts.

Eventually, the official statistics will catch up with the new reality that global migration

is exploding. When population and labor force statistics are properly synchronized, we

will see an impact on financial markets, economic statistics and social policy.

4

Asset Management

These revisions will bring some difficult decisions to the surface, as it seems that we have

been living in a state of denial for almost a decade. If indeed, the number of illegal

immigrants is 20 million people, approximately the equivalent of New York State, any

amnesty or legalization and assimilation process will require significant public sector

resources.

Illegal immigrants work very hard to conceal their identities and successfully avoid being

counted. Even apprehended illegal migrants will hide important personal data on their

status to avoid removal. Census officials and academics underestimate the ingenuity and

the efficiency of the communications network among immigrants. Understandably,

illegal immigrants go to great lengths to maintain a low profile and conceal their

identities, not only for census purposes, but for tax purposes as well. The risk–reward

trade of dodging census inquiries is severely skewed. Migrants that pay large portions of

future earnings to gain entry into the United States make the sacrifice of leaving their

families behind, or have trekked through physical obstacles and thousands of miles;

accordingly, they have no downside risk in discarding census surveys.

Employers also have incentive to hire undocumented workers off the books, taking

advantages of inefficient immigration enforcement. The competitive winds of deflation

from overseas labor markets have forced U.S. employers to find extra-legal, innovative

ways to capitalize on sources of cheaper labor to stay competitive. These employers

have, in turn, placed pressure on the government to ignore the flood of cheap labor. INS

enforcement of employer violations has decreased dramatically over the last five years.

This trend is counter intuitive, given the substantial rise in illegal immigration during a

new era of national security.

5

Asset Management

Evidence Beyond Anecdotal

The strongest evidence supporting our theory that the actual illegal population is double

the consensus estimates lies within several micro trends at the community level. We see

very dramatic increases in services required in communities that have become gateways

for immigration. States with high populations of undocumented immigrants have

experienced extra demand for public services. The top nine states, California, Texas,

Florida, New York, Illinois , New Jersey, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina account

for approximately 50% of the undocumented population. Although the federal

government has the sole authority to govern immigration flows, the responsibility for

providing support to legal and illegal immigrants rests with the state and local

governments

The de facto administration at the state and local level reinforces our premise that we

must look at local statistics to extrapolate the most reliable headcount of immigrants.

The increases in services, including public school enrollment, language proficiency

programs, and building permits all point to a rate of change far greater than the

census numbers would imply for the demand for these local services.

these areas indicates that more people are moving into these communities than the

official estimates.

The growth in

Chart 1. INS (now USCIS) Enforcements

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Source: US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)

Investigations of Employers with Unauthorized Aliens:

Cases Completed

Arrests from Investigating Employers with

Unauthorized Aliens

6

Asset Management

Based on several criteria, we believe that immigration is growing significantly faster than

the consensus estimates:

1. Remittances

2. Housing permits in gateway communities

3. School enrollment

4. Cross border flows

Remittances

Many immigrants, particularly those with immediate families in their native country,

provide financial support to those left behind. Remittances are surging because many

immigrants send home on average $1,400 to $1,500 per year through money transfers.

In 2002, people sent $133 billion worldwide, according to the World Bank. Developing

countries accounted for $88 billion of the total, up 33% from $60 billion in 2000.

Countries that are experiencing migration outflows are having very large increases in

remittances. Remittances from the United States to Mexico have tripled to $13 billion

between 1995 and 2003. For Mexico, this is an important source of funds that has

surpassed foreign direct investments and tourism receipts in 2003, and is second only to

petroleum export revenues.

Most importantly, this explosion in remittances is not consistent with the estimates of

legal and illegal immigrants from Mexico. The rate of increase in remittances far

exceeds the increases in Mexicans residing in the U.S. and their wage growth. Between

1995 and 2003, the official tally of Mexicans has climbed 56%, and median weekly wage

has increased by 10%. Yet total remittances jumped 199% over the same period. Even

considering the declining costs of money transfers, the growth of remittances remains

astounding.

7

Asset Management

The rapid addition of bank accounts by Mexicans living in the U.S. is also revealing.

According to the Pew Hispanic Center, 39% of surveyed Latino immigrants cited legal

status as a concern for opening bank accounts. This motivates many immigrants to remit

cash through private money centers such as Western Union and Money Gram, which

charge very high fees. Since late 2001, however, many major banks including Citibank,

Bank of America, and Wells Fargo Bank began accepting

identity cards for Mexicans living in the U.S. These cards show the local addresses of the

holders, and any legal or illegal Mexican can obtain it at one of the 45 Mexican

consulates across the country. The removal of legal status as a concern for opening and

using bank accounts has led to a boom in retail business for some banks. Wells Fargo

opens an average of 700 new accounts everyday based on this identification, representing

the fastest growing segment for the bank. To date, around 2.5 million

been issued, and the number is growing.

matriculas, photographedmatriculas have

Housing permits

In major immigrant gateway cities, the influx of immigrants has led to overcrowded

dwellings and a housing boom unexplained by official population growth. Many illegal

immigrants, especially those who just arrive, reside in congested dwellings in cities, with

the hope of finding jobs and upgrading to better living conditions later. These congested

dwellings often house far more tenants than they are built for, and their landlords have no

qualms about cramming in additional renters for a surcharge. Even so, new housing

demand in these illegal immigrant enclaves outstrips those in other areas.

Chart 2. Mexican Remittances from the US, 1995-2003

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: Pew Hispanic Center, Banco de Mexico, Informes Anuales

Index

Mexicans in the US (Indexed)

Mean Weekly Wages for Hispanics (Indexed)

Total Remittances (Indexed)

Mexican remittances from the US have jumped dramatically since 2000. Surveyed wage growth

and the offically estimated Mexican population growth in the US do not adequately explain this

spike.

$13bn

8

Asset Management

In New Jersey, the three gateway towns of New Brunswick, Elizabeth, and Newark

exemplify this trend. According to the census, the combined population in these three

towns between 1990 and 2003 grew only 5.6%, less than the 9% reported in the rest of

the three corresponding counties. Yet housing permits in these three towns shot up over

six-fold, while the rest of the three counties only saw a three-fold increase. More

importantly, 80% of these permits were designated for multiple dwellings, so the

corresponding increase in people accommodated are even greater. Official statistics state

that illegal immigrants in New Jersey have jumped 110% during the same period – an

estimate that is inconsistent with the housing statistics, our discussions with local realtors

and the changes that we have visually observed in the demographic landscape.

School Enrollment

The major immigration gateways have experienced school enrollments much higher than

projections. The decrease in the number of births in the past decade had led education

administrators to expect decreasing school enrollments as a post echo boom trend. A

higher immigration rate, however, has offset the impact of declining births. The

enrollment statistics for a sample of school districts that included Queens, New York,

Elizabeth, Newark and New Brunswick, New Jersey and Wake County in North Carolina

revealed explosive growth in immigrant students, far beyond numbers consistent with

legal migration limits.

Chart 3. Housing Permits in New Jersey Immigrant Gateways: New Brunswick, Elizabeth,

and Newark

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Source: US Census Bureau, NJ Dept of Workforce & Labor Development

No. of permits

Multiple Units

Single Units

These three towns saw lower official population growth (4%) than the rest of their respective

counties (7%). Yet their residential housing permits jumped sixfold vs. threefold in the counties,

with 80% slated for multiple dwellings.

Even if the offiical 110% increase in New Jersey illegal immigrants all moved to these three

towns, the housing permit spike was hard to explain.

9

Asset Management

According to the Urban Institute, children under 18 comprise approximately 17% of the

undocumented population, with only half attending school, making the sharp increases in

school enrollment more telling. We can extrapolate that for every undocumented

immigrant child in the public school system, there are potentially 8 to 9 additional

undocumented men, women and children living in the United States.

In New York City, nearly one-quarter of the general population is under the age of 18.

Approximately 55% of these children were enrolled in grades pre-K-12 in the 2001-2002

school year. It appears that the ratio of illegal immigrant school children to adults is

much lower than the general population, and understandably so. Historically, the

transition of illegal immigrants is lead by single males, followed by single females, who

establish a presence, a job and home before starting a family or relocating other family

members from their native countries.

Chart 4. Student Enrollments in Wake County, North Carolina

100,000

102,000

104,000

106,000

108,000

110,000

112,000

114,000

116,000

2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05

Source: Wake County Public School System

No. of Students

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

%

Projected

Actual

Historically, projected and actual % Difference

public school enrollments differed

only by 0.08%. This gap has

widened substantially, driven by

higher than expected elementary

school enrollments.

10

Asset Management

With a total enrollment of 1.1 million students, the NYC public school system is the

largest in the nation. Immigrant student enrollment for the 1998-2001 period was

103,000, with Queens accounting for the largest share, 37,000. Between 1990 and 2001,

more than half of New York City’s school districts increased their enrollments 10% or

more, driven by a high number of immigrant students.

Demographic and enrollment trends according to the New York City Public Schools

system state:

number of births on school enrollment.” Administrators have been surprised that

school population growth significantly exceeded earlier projections, thus creating

overcrowding in many school districts.

“To a significant degree, high rates of immigration offset the effect of a declining

registered for grades pre-K-12 in New York City Public Schools, with many

predominant countries of origin, other than Mexico, including the Dominican

Republic, China, Jamaica, Mexico, Pakistan, Ecuador, Colombia and Haiti.”

“In the three-year period from 1999 to 2001, 102,867 immigrant students

Chart 5. Declining Births and Increasing School Enrollments in New York City

550,000

570,000

590,000

610,000

630,000

650,000

670,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Source: NYC Dept of Planning, NYC Dept of Health

Despite declining births in New York City, immigration has

fueled increases in elementary and intermediate school

enrollments.

PS/IS enrollments (5 year lag) minus resident births

11

Asset Management

Cross Border Flows

Pulitzer Prize reporters Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele recently reported for

TIME

magazine that “the number of illegal aliens flooding into the United States this year will

total 3 million. It will be the largest wave since 2001 and roughly triple the number of

immigrants that will come to the U.S. by legal means.” The

according to Mr. Barlett, relied not only on figures projected by the U.S. Border Patrol,

but also on the reporter’s extensive investigations along the Mexican border at factories,

local communities, and the district offices of the U.S. Border Patrol.

Though more resources have been designated to patrolling the Mexican border,

TIME investigation,TIME

argues that “the government doesn’t want to fix it, and the politicians, as usual, are

dodging the issue, even though public opinion polls show that Americans

overwhelmingly favor a crackdown on illegal immigration.” It can be strongly argued

that enforcement at the work place is a much more efficient way of controlling illegal

flows because the primary incentive for sneaking into the United States is money and

jobs. A telephone verification system was designed under the auspices of the

Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 for employers to confirm the legal status of

potential employees. As of today, this system is still not running.

Migration is a Global Macro Trend

The world is undergoing the largest migration wave since the late 1800’s. Over 175

million people are in motion. The dramatic increase in human mobility has left the public

sector and policy makers behind. The specific and general understanding of migration

flows has not kept pace with the growth, complexity and implications of this

phenomenon. The economic implications of demographics have increased tremendously

over the last 20 years. In no other time period during the last century have demographics

undergone such a subcutaneous change in the United States.

The human race is on the move – human mobility is increasing drastically, according to

the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the Population Division of the

United Nations. It estimates the total number of international migrants is approximately

175 million or 2.9% of the world population. The migration wave has two components –

transnational and rural to urban, and these waves are changing the dynamics of

government, economics and lifestyles more than any other driver of human behavior.

Governments are seriously behind in recording and comprehending the current

phenomenon, and more importantly, governments are making economic and social policy

decisions based on flawed information. Like corrupt corporate accounting practices or

poor national security information, the United States is struggling with its immigration

policies because of false assumptions and unreliable data.

12

Asset Management

Far Reaching Investment Implications Hinging on Government Policy and

Enforcement

The importance, rightfully or wrongfully, that markets place on economic data can be

demonstrated in the bond market reactions to employment releases. Employment

releases are like earnings releases in that investors count on the information to be

accurate, within a reasonable margin of error, so that good analysis can lead to prudent

evaluations of risk and reward.

In the case of household employment numbers, there is a 90% confidence interval for

monthly changes in employment, which equates to a margin of error of approximately

plus or minus 350,000. A 350,000 margin of error on a labor force of 135 million people

is acceptable, but the current migration wave is distorting total employment by the

millions, we believe. This presents serious statistical problems that can lead to faulty

investment decisions. Unless the government and investors get the numbers on

immigration correct, the market will fail to grasp the extent of the required policy

changes. The consequent adjustments could be drastic and disruptive to the bond

market.

To a large extent, U.S. immigration policy is adhoc, according to Robert Shiller, Stanley

B. Resor Professor of Economics, Yale University:

The system that developed countries currently use to keep people from lessdeveloped

countries out is inefficient. The United States has strict immigration

policies but lax enforcement; so many people manage to slip illegally over the

border. Once here, the illegal immigrants pay dearly in terms of quality of life.

Then, periodically, the United States considers granting amnesty to illegal

immigrants. This is a crazy system, and we could imagine a better one that could

someday handle immigration.

Belated policy responses no doubt complicate efforts to assess the number of illegal

migrants. However, the focus on the migration issue is growing. The profile of the

immigration topic is rising in the media, the legislature, and in grass root movements.

Many documentary and feature films are exploring the immigration themes. State and

local governments and medical institutions in the gateway states are being financially

impacted by the increased demand generated by these new American residents.

Arizona’s Proposition 200 may represent a new trend to address the state and local strains

associated with this unanticipated and underestimated population growth. We expect that

the coverage, the tangential issues and the political emotions will be magnified in 2005.

In this paper, we have merely outlined what we see as the magnitude of the current

migration wave. We have barely touched on the economic and investment implications.

In the coming months, we will explore further the specific relationship between public

policy, enforcement and the more specific implications for the economy and the bond

markets.

13

Asset Management

References

Fernando Lozano Ascencio, 2004. “Tendencias recientes de las remesas de los migrantes mexicanos en

Estados Unidos.” Centro Regional de Investigaciones Multidisciplinaries de la UNAM.

Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele, September 20, 2004. “Who Left the Door Open?” TIME

magazine.

Steven A. Camarota, October 2004. “A Jobless Recovery? Immigrant Gains and Native Losses.” Center

for Immigration Studies.

Steven A. Camarota, November 2004. “Economy Slowed, But Immigration Didn’t. The Foreign-Born

Population, 2000-2004.” Center for Immigration Studies

Joel Dreyfuss, Scott Silvestri and Thomas Back, March 2004. “Western Union. Margins Shrinking. Send

Customers.” Bloomberg Markets.

Kevin L. Kliesen and Howard J. Wall, April 2004. “A Jobless Recovery with More People Working?”

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Maxine L. Margolis, 1998. “An Invisible Minority. Brazilians in New York City.” Allyn & Bacon

Kevin O’Neil, June 1, 2003. “Remittances from the United States in Context.” Migration Policy Institute.

Jeffrey Passel, May 22, 2002. “New Estimates of the Undocumented Population.” Migration Policy

Institute.

Charles Pinkerton, Gail McLaughlan, John Salt, 2004 “Sizing the illegally resident population in the UK.”

Migration Research Unit, University College, London

Ray Stone, January 21, 2004. “Payrolls – Illegal Immigrant Workers, the Missing Link?”

Dilip Ratha, October 1, 2004. “Understanding the Importance of Remittances.” Migration Policy Institute.

Edwin S. Rubenstein, 2004. “Illegal Immigration – Unmentionable Answer to Household vs. Payroll

Survey Controversy.” ESR Research Economic Consulta

Roberto Suro, et al, 2002. “Billions in Motion: Latino Immigrants Remittances and Banking.” Pew

Hispanic Center Report and the Multilateral Investment Fund of the Inter-American Development Bank.

“World Migration, 2003.” The International Organization for Migration.

Mexican Embassy, Washington D.C.

The New Jersey Department of Education

New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

The New York State Department of Education

US Census Bureau

US Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics.

US Border Patrol, telephone interview.

Wake Country Public School System, North Carolina

Wells Fargo Bank, October 2004, interview.

World Bank.

 

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

COMMISSAR OBAMA

WHO IS BARACK OBAMA?

You will be shocked to learn what lies beneath the well-polished rhetoric of this slick orator. Obama speaks vaguely about “change,” but as this book reveals, Obama’s brand of change is a hostile attack on the Judeo-Christian values and freedoms most Americans hold dear.

This isn’t “change you can believe in”—it is change designed to uproot American culture and replace it with the failed, secular, socialist policies of the past.

In “The Audacity of Deceit” you’ll learn how Obama:

  • Blocked emergency medical aid for babies who survived abortion.
  • Plans to ban the use of firearms by lawabiding citizens—even for self-defense.
  • Was abandoned by his bigamist father and raised in a Muslim society—and
    how this influences his values.
  • Would raise tax rates to a Hoover-like 60 percent.
  • Will transform the U.S. Treasury into the United Nations’ ATM.
  • Wants fuel prices high and farmland taken out of production.
  • Will grant federal medical insurance to 12 million illegal aliens and increase
    emergency room costs alone by $15.4 billion annually.
  • Would transfer child-rearing from parents to the federal government with his
    secular “0 to 5” program.
    You will also read exclusive polling results that reveal the 30 percent of Americans who pay no taxes, what they believe, and who they are planning to vote for.

His goal? Replace the Judeo-Christian values that gave birth to the “land of the free” with failed radical leftist beliefs

OBAMA WILL NEVER ADMIT HE IS WRONG. THE PEOPLE ARE WRONG AND NOT SMART ENOUGHT TO HAVE AN OPINION.

IN GOD WE TRUST

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

NEW NAME ON MY WEBLOG. “THE PATRIOT”

MY DOMAIN NAME EXPIRED,  SO THIS IS MY NEW NAME. “THE PATRIOT”

THANKS TO EVERYONE WHO READS MY BLOG, I HOPE YOU CONTINUE. I INTEND TO CONTINUE TO BLOG ABOUT THE SAME TOPICS, I WILL STILL BE OPINIONATED!

THANKS AGAIN,

MICKMCK707.WORDPRESS.COM

JANET NAPOLITANO DIRECTOR OF HOMELAND SECURITY

It is unfortunate that many government jobs are given by appointment because Janet Napolitano, Director of Homeland Security, is unqualified to hold the position to which she was appointed. In the last two weeks she has done some amazingly stupid things.

About two weeks ago, and just before the TEA Parties, the DHS released its report on radical rightwing extremist groups which basically described all conservatives but threw in baseless accusations such as we are angry at a black man being elected president. The report targets returning veterans as potential extremists. This is a fine way to classify those who have the testicular fortitude to fight for this country.

Then, Napolitano made the statement that the 9/11 terrorists entered this country by crossing the Canadian border. This is absolutely incorrect. They flew into this country on documents issued by the State Department (and a few had MARYLAND driver’s licenses because Maryland gives them to everyone). Though she claims to have been misunderstood, it was quite clear what she said. She also tried to claim she was referring to a long debunked urban legend. She is full of bovine excrement.

The furor began when Napolitano was asked to clarify statements she had made about equal treatment for the Mexican and Canadian borders, despite the fact that a flood of illegal immigrants and a massive drug war are two serious issues on the southern border.

“Yes, Canada is not Mexico, it doesn’t have a drug war going on, it didn’t have 6,000 homicides that were drug-related last year,” she said.

“Nonetheless, to the extent that terrorists have come into our country or suspected or known terrorists have entered our country across a border, it’s been across the Canadian border. There are real issues there.”

When asked if she was referring to the 9-11 terrorists, Napolitano added: “Not just those but others as well.” [emphasis mine] CTV.ca

One would think the Director of the DHS might know the truth about the 9/11 terrorists. One might also think that she would know there is a big difference between the northern and southern borders. In the south, people sneak across illegally and stay here. They smuggle in drugs and they kill Americans. In the north, they come across, do business, and go home. They enter legally. Yes, some people have entered illegally via the northern border but nowhere near the scale that they do in the south.

The issue of the border brings us to ILLEGAL immigration. Napolitano is a little fuzzy when it comes to this topic as well. She seems to think that crossing the border illegally is not a crime. During an interview with CNN’s John King, Napolitano was discussing Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio and his quest to enforce the immigration laws. After she dismissed his efforts she said:

“What we have to do is target the real evil-doers in this business, the employers who consistently hire illegal labor, the human traffickers who are exploiting human misery.

“And yes, when we find illegal workers, yes, appropriate action, some of which is criminal, most of that is civil, because crossing the border is not a crime per se. It is civil. But anyway, going after those as well.” [emphasis mine]NewsMax

As the cited article points out, crossing the border is a crime punishable with a fine, jail time, or both. I am no lawyer but I believe that once an illegal is here and is caught it is a civil issue. Crossing the border is the felony. This is the dilemma. We know they committed a felony to get here but if we do not catch them actually crossing the border, it is a civil issue.

I have equated it to a man robbing a bank. If he robs the bank and gets away and a day later the cops find him spending the money, he has dye on his hands and his admits to the robbery, he is still guilty of a felony. Imagine if it were only a felony if they caught him robbing the bank but it was a civil issue if they caught him later. This is the insanity involved in our immigration laws.

Napolitano is one of the people who is supposed to protect the country but she is more interested in going after a law enforcement officer who is trying to uphold the law than the criminals who are breaking it (regardless of her “tough” rhetoric).

She thinks people who have conservative beliefs are rightwing extremists, that the 9/11 terrorists entered through Canada, and that crossing our border illegally is not a crime.

Like I said, it is unfortunate that these positions are political appointments because she has demonstrated that she is incompetent.

She should be relieved of her duties and replaced with someone who knows what he is doing.

Then again, she is what Obama wants. Someone who will be an advocate for the illegals.

Obama wants them as Democratic voters.

Big Dog

MEXICAN DRUG WARS IN AMERICA NOW!!

caiioh9-immigrationCOLUMBIANA, Ala. – Five men dead in an apartment.

In a county that might see five homicides in an entire year, the call over the sheriff’s radio revealed little about what awaited law enforcement at a sprawling apartment complex.

A type of crime, and criminal, once foreign to this landscape of blooming dogwoods had arrived in Shelby County. Sheriff Chris Curry felt it even before he laid eyes on the grisly scene. He called the state. The FBI. The DEA. Anyone he could think of.

“I don’t know what I’ve got,” he warned them. “But I’m gonna need help.”

The five dead men lay scattered about the living room of one apartment in a complex of hundreds.

Some of the men showed signs of torture: Burns seared into their earlobes revealed where modified jumper cables had been clamped as an improvised electrocution device. Adhesive from duct tape used to bind the victims still clung to wrists and faces, from mouths to noses.

As a final touch, throats were slashed open, post-mortem.

It didn’t take long for Curry and federal agents to piece together clues: A murder scene, clean save for the crimson-turned-brown stains now spotting the carpet. Just a couple of mattresses tossed on the floor. It was a typical stash house.

But the cut throats? Some sort of ghastly warning.

Curry would soon find this was a retaliation hit over drug money with ties to Mexico‘s notorious Gulf Cartel.

Curry also found out firsthand what federal drug enforcement agents have long understood. The drug war, with the savagery it brings, knows no bounds. It had landed in his back yard, in the foothills of the Appalachians, in Alabama‘s wealthiest county, around the corner from The Home Depot.

One thousand, twenty-four miles from the Mexico border.

___

Forget for a moment the phrase itself — “War on Drugs” — much-derided since President Richard Nixon coined it. Wars eventually end, after all. And many Americans wonder today, nearly four decades later, will this one ever be won?

In Mexico, the fight has become a real war. Some 45,000 Mexican army troops now patrol territories long ruled by narcotraffickers. Places like Tijuana, in the border state of Baja California. Reynosa, across the Rio Grande from Texas. Ciudad Juarez, next door to El Paso. But also the central state of Michoacan and resort cities like Acapulco, an hour south of the place where, months ago, the decapitated bodies of 12 soldiers were discovered with a sign that read:

“For every one of mine that you kill, I will kill 10.”

Some 10,560 people have been killed since 2006, the year Mexican President Felipe Calderon took office and launched his campaign against the organized crime gangs that move cocaine, methamphetamine, marijuana and heroin to a vast U.S. market. Consider that fewer than 4,300 American service members have died in the six-year war in Iraq.

The cartels are fighting each other for power, and the Calderon administration for their very survival. Never before has a Mexican president gone after these narco-networks with such force.

“He has deployed troops. He has deployed national police. He’s trying to vet and create units … that can effectively adjudicate and turn back the years of corruption,” says John Walters, who directed the Office of National Drug Control Policy for seven years under President George W. Bush. “These groups got more powerful, and when there was less visible destruction, it was because they were in control; they were stable. Now, he has destabilized them.”

Walters sees this as an “opportunity to change — for better, or worse — the history of our two countries fundamentally.”

And now the cartels have brought the fight to us: In 230 U.S. cities, the Mexican organizations maintain distribution hubs or supply drugs to local distributors, according to the Justice Department’s National Drug Intelligence Center.

Places like Miami and other longtime transportation points along the California, Arizona and Texas borders. But also Twin Falls, Idaho. Billings, Mont. Wichita, Kan. Phoenix. St. Louis. Milwaukee.

Even Shelby County.

The quintuple homicide occurred just outside the Birmingham city limits and a half-hour’s drive north of Columbiana, the county seat.

“We became a hub without knowing it,” Sheriff Curry says. “We’ve got to wake people up because we’re seeing it all over the place. It is now firmly located throughout this country.”

The talk of the day is “spillover” violence — at once the stuff of sensationalism but also a very real concept.

In Phoenix, the nation’s fifth-largest city, police report close to 1,000 kidnappings over the past three years tied to border smuggling, be it human or drugs or both. The rise parallels a shift in illegal immigrant crossings from California and Texas to the Arizona border, where many of the same gangs transporting people transport drugs. The perpetrators are often after ransom money, for a drug load lost or from a family that paid to have a relative brought over.

The problem has earned the city the unfortunate distinction of “America’s kidnapping capital” in some media accounts, even though the incidents are mostly out of sight and out of mind for law-abiding residents and overall crime, including homicides, was down last year.

In Atlanta, which has grown into a major distribution hub for the Gulf Cartel, trafficker-on-trafficker violence has become more common as the cartels, in the face of Calderon’s crackdown, impose tighter payment schedules and grow less tolerant of extending credit, says Rodney Benson, chief of the Drug Enforcement Administration there.

Benson blames that, in part, for the much-publicized kidnapping last summer in the middle-class Atlanta suburb of Lilburn, not far from Stone Mountain Park. Acting on a tip, agents found a Dominican man chained to a wall in the basement of a house, severely dehydrated and badly beaten. He had been lured from Rhode Island because he apparently owed $300,000 in drug debts.

“Money wasn’t paid,” Benson says. “They were going to kill him.”

Greg Borland heads the DEA office in Birmingham. Since the murders last August, he’s seen the fear in his neighbors’ eyes, and faced their questions: How did this happen? Why here? Why now?

“They’re absolutely shocked. To me it’s like: Why? It’s everywhere. Unless you have a 50-foot wall around your town, no one should feel immune from this. The citizen in me says, `I can’t believe this is happening in my town.’ But the cop in me says, `Well, it’s only a matter of time’ … because there are high-level drug traffickers in the area.

“Maybe,” he says, “it was only by the grace of God that it hadn’t happened already.”

Those in the know understand that this kind of violence is nothing new. In border communities that have long been trafficking hubs it’s uncommon not to hear of a drug-related crime on the evening news.

What’s new is where that violence is erupting, where distribution cells and hubs and sub-hubs have surfaced. How an apartment in Alabama became the site of a drug hit in many ways tells the story of the narco-trade in America in 2009, and of the challenges we face in combatting a blight that has spread to big cities and small all across the land.

___

Before Aug. 20, 2008, when the five men were found, the assumption had been that the big drug hauls were passing through Shelby County and on to cities with larger markets.

Alabama had long had its share of street dealers. Homegrown pot passed hands. Then powder cocaine and crack. Soon meth labs cropped up here and there. “Just a local issue,” says Curry.

“There weren’t really any traffickers in our county. But over time it’s escalated into a sophisticated transportation structure that moves marijuana, moves powder cocaine and now moves crystal meth.”

First came the rise of the Mexican cartel, brought about in the late ’80s and early ’90s after authorities cracked down on Colombian traffickers and choked off routes along the Caribbean and in South Florida. The Colombians aligned with the Mexicans for transportation, then began paying their Mexican subcontractors in cocaine.

As more Colombian traffickers were brought down, the Mexicans took over both transportation and distribution. A decade ago, 60 percent of the cocaine entering the United States came through Mexico. Today that figure is 90 percent.

Texas and other border states become primary distribution hubs. Greg Bowden, who heads the FBI‘s violent crime task force in Birmingham, worked four years in the Texas border city of Brownsville. He remembers cases involving Alabama dealers who would fly into Houston, rent a car, pick up loads at a warehouse or mall parking lot and drive back home.

“(Distributors) felt comfortable in Texas. That was their home base, and has been for a long time. Now,” says Bowden, “they’re comfortable here, in Memphis, in Atlanta. They moved their home bases to these little pockets.”

One reason for that shift is the ability these days to “blend in in plain sight,” as the Atlanta DEA chief puts it. The flood of Hispanic immigrants into American communities to work construction and plant jobs helped provide cover for traffickers looking to expand into new markets or build hubs in quiet suburbs with fewer law officers than the big cities.

Shelby has long been Alabama’s fastest-growing county, with its proximity to Birmingham, good schools and a growing corporate corridor along Highway 280. The number of Hispanics grew 126 percent from 2000 to 2007. It was once rare to see a Latino face at the local Wal-Mart or gas station. Now, dozens upon dozens of Hispanic day laborers line Lorna Road in the northern part of the county.

As Bowden says, “You don’t stand out.”

But there is another reason this area, and others, have become what some agents call “sub-hubs.”

With some 4.9 million trucks crossing into the United States from Mexico every year, tractor-trailers have become a transportation mode of choice among traffickers. Drugs head north, but weapons and cash also head back south — like the $400,000 Border Patrol agents found on April 2 near Las Cruces, N.M., stashed in the refrigeration unit of a semi.

Shelby County is a trucking mecca, with highways 65, 20, 59 and 459 running east to Atlanta, north to Nashville, south to New Orleans, west to Dallas. Once reluctant to haul drug shipments too far beyond a border state, drivers are willing to take more chances now, because there are so many trucks on the road, Bowden says.

Since January, 27 people were sentenced in Alabama federal court in just one case for using tractor-trailers to transport cocaine and marijuana from Mexico across the border to Brownsville, then up through Birmingham on I-65 to northern Alabama for distribution. Investigators seized 77 pounds of cocaine during the investigation — more than the DEA seized in the entire state of Alabama in all of 1999. The scheme, according to an indictment, had operated since 2004.

Amid all of this, an operation moved into Shelby County, leading to the call on Aug. 20.

A simple welfare check brought deputies to the Cahaba Lakes Apartments off Highway 280, down the road from upscale Vestavia Hills, whose motto is “A Better Place to Live.”

The victims were Hispanic, all illegal immigrants. Interviews with family members and associates helped investigators piece together a sketchy portrait of what happened.

Agents described it as friendly competition turned deadly among a group of distributors from Atlanta and Birmingham that often sold and shared drug loads when one or the other group was running low. At some point, about a half-million in drug money went missing. One group suspected the other of taking it, and went after the five men at Cahaba Lakes.

The money was never found.

Whether an order came directly from Mexico, or the decision was made down the food chain, investigators don’t know.

The DEA’s Borland notes that making a direct connection between the street level distributors charged in the killing and a specific cartel boss back in Mexico isn’t easy in a business with so many players at various levels.

“We don’t have canceled checks of their dues payments to the cartels. But we know that they were moving large quantities of drugs, which are probably brought in here under the supervision of the Gulf Cartel, because the Gulf Cartel is the dominant one here,” he says.

“That money was supposed to be moving … and it disappeared. So the attempt was to locate where was the money and who took it?” Curry says. “It was a contract hit, ordered to be carried out and paid for.”

Since then, Curry has pushed aside concerns about resources and assigned one deputy to a DEA task force, another to work with the FBI. At the behest of the Department of Homeland Security, he joined in a conference call with police chiefs and sheriffs in border states to discuss what he now calls “a common problem.”

And he answers, as candidly as possible, his citizens’ questions when they ask him about this “new” threat.

“People want to have a comfort zone, and if they have to confront the realities of how rough life really is, that doesn’t sit well,” he says. “It scares them. And they don’t want to be scared. South of our border: gunfights, violence — it is a normal, accepted, expected behavior. That has now moved into our borders.”

___

Ask just about any DEA agent or expert who keeps a close watch on drug trafficking, and they’ll cringe at the use of the word “war.” They’ll tell you, flat out, that no, it’s not likely ever to be won. Just as there will always be robberies and rapes and homicides, there will always be narcotrafficking.

So they take their victories where they can. And there have been victories.

Heads of cartels have been toppled. Juan Garcia Abrego, former chief of the Gulf Cartel and once on the FBI’s Ten Most Wanted list, is serving 11 life terms in a Colorado federal prison after his 1996 arrest in Mexico and extradition to the United States. His successor, Osiel Cardenas, awaits trial in Houston after his 2007 extradition from Mexico.

These handovers have become almost routine under Calderon, who reversed long-standing practice and allowed more Mexicans to be tried in the United States. Last year, he extradited a record 95 wanted criminals, including several high-ranking members of the Tijuana-based Arrellano-Felix cartel.

In February, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder announced the arrest of more than 750 people as part of “Operation Xcellerator,” which targeted Mexico’s most powerful drug organization, the Sinaloa Cartel. Another 175 were arrested last fall as part of “Project Reckoning,” an investigation into the Gulf Cartel.

President Barack Obama has promised to dispatch hundreds of additional agents to the border, along with more gear and drug-sniffing dogs. “If the steps that we’ve taken do not get the job done,” he said, “then we will do more.”

“More” may well come in the form of more direct aid to Mexico. In her first visit to Mexico as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton said the White House would seek $80 million to help Mexico buy Blackhawk helicopters. That’s on top of a $1.3 billion Bush-era initiative providing drug-fighting aircraft and equipment to Mexico over the next three years.

But the answer to this problem is as complex as the problem itself. Enforcement, money and equipment alone aren’t enough. In Mexico, the challenges run deep as corruption has infected almost every level of government. Here, the true remedy is just as daunting: Curbing the appetite that fuels all of this.

“We are still throwing the cops at a problem that is well beyond that,” says George Friedman, who heads the global intelligence firm Stratfor. “It is a major geopolitical problem. We’ve been moving into a situation where the Mexican government is no longer the most powerful force in Mexico.

“It’s a mess, not a war,” says Friedman.

Many months after the Shelby County case, the Alabama sheriff still grapples with the ugly reality of what the mess means for him and his community.

He had his own victory, of sorts. Arrests were swift, and six suspects now are held without bond in the Shelby County Jail charged with capital murder. One owned a tire shop, another was a barber — more evidence to authorities of how bad guys can blend in.

Still, it is a victory without call for celebration, because Curry wonders when and where it will happen again.

“This is not an isolated incident. It is a standard business practice with this group of people, and it is simply going to be repeated,” he says. “I can’t predict whether it’s going to be repeated here or not, but it’s going to be repeated in communities throughout the United States whenever these disagreements occur.”

Reblog this post [with Zemanta]

IT’S NOT OVER TILL THE ALIENS WIN

Obama Census Plan: No Illegal Alien Left Behind

I have seen the electoral future, and it is rigged. With fraud-prone, ideologically-driven interest groups swarming the census-gathering process, the Left is solidifying its chances of a permanent ruling majority. Lax immigration enforcement is the not-so-secret key to the Democrats’ power grab. And the Obama administration is all too happy to aid and abet.

At a meeting to mobilize volunteer trainees assisting with the decennial national head count, Commerce Secretary Gary Locke encouraged the government’s partners to spread the word that privacy rights of census-takers would not be violated and that accuracy and fairness would be ensured. Locke assured the activists: “We all recognize what is at stake.”

But do you?

The volunteer groups Commerce Secretary Locke is entrusting to protect accuracy and fairness include the race racketeers and voter registration con artists of tax-subsidized ACORN, the amnesty activists of Voto Latino, and the labor mobsters of the SEIU. The fate of $300 billion in federal funding – and, most importantly, the apportionment of Congressional seats – rest in their hands.

As for “privacy rights,” it’s not your privacy rights they care about. It’s the privacy rights of millions of illegal aliens whose advocates have enshrined for them a sacred right never to be questioned about their immigration status. Obama’s census partners are using the process to pressure homeland security agents to halt interior enforcement efforts and workplace raids so that illegal alien cooperation with the national survey is maximized. Inclusion of the massive illegal alien population has resulted in a radical redrawing of the electoral map.

The Census is used to divvy up seats in the House as a proportion of their population based on the head count. More people equals more seats. More illegal immigrants counted equals more power. This is not hypothetical. The Center for Immigration Studies determined that in the 2000 election cycle, the presence of non-citizens (including illegal immigrants, temporary visitors, and green-card holders) caused nine seats in the House to switch hands. As the think tank’s analysis reported: California added six seats it would not have had otherwise. Texas, New York, and Florida each gained a seat. Indiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin each lost a seat. Montana, Kentucky, and Utah each failed to secure a seat they would otherwise have gained.

Translation in plain English: Open borders have profound consequences. And they don’t end with congressional apportionment. The redistribution of power extends to presidential elections because the Electoral College is pegged to the size of congressional delegations.

Under the Carter administration, the men and women who enforce our immigration laws were ordered not to do their jobs during the census count; non-enforcement was the unspoken policy during the Clinton administration in 2000. The policy, in other words, was to put political interests above security interests and leave No Illegal Alien Left Behind. The Obama Department of Homeland Security is already continuing the tradition – reversing the work of investigative agents who have uncovered massive document fraud at illegal alien worksites and cutting immigration and customs enforcement operations at the knees.

During the eight years of the Bush administration, groups such as ACORN received millions of dollars in subsidies for their racial and corporate shakedown activities. The pro-amnesty faction of the GOP pandered to unions such as the SEIU and ethnic lobbying groups such as Voto Latino seeking to boost their membership rolls.

Now, Republicans can only stand by helplessly while the political opponents they helped fund use the census to help wipe them off the electoral map. You reap what you sow.

“IT’S NOT OVER TILL THE ALIENS WIN”